Live Accuracy Scoreboard
Every forecast we publish is snapshotted the day it’s made, then scored against the real market price when its 30-day window closes. Nothing here is a backtest — it’s the model’s actual, forward-looking record, wins and misses alike. Updated daily.
Forecasts scored
160,105
Avg. price error
10.9%
Actual inside range
76.4%
The downside calls are the part of this record that has earned trust — they are collected on the sell signals page.
By call type
Where the model has genuinely earned trust so far: its downside calls. Upside calls ran optimistic — so as of Aug 2, 2026 every published target passes through a live calibration layer that corrects the measured bias and widens ranges to their true 90% coverage (validated out-of-sample: price error 11.9% → 8.5%, range coverage 72% → 92%). This table tracks the raw model so the calibration stays honestly out-of-sample; calibrated results will appear here as they score.
| Segment | Forecasts scored | Avg. price error | Direction right | Inside range | Predicted → actual move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong upside calls | 13,847 | 19.8% | 53.4% | 36.3% | +19.5% → +3.0% |
| Upside calls | 75,827 | 12.2% | 50.3% | 71.3% | +8.7% → +0.3% |
| Stable calls | 69,039 | 7.6% | 51.2% | 90.3% | +2.7% → -0.4% |
| Downside-risk calls | 1,221 | 19.6% | 82.7% | 64.5% | -9.3% → -16.3% |
| Downside calls | 171 | 31.7% | 77.8% | 59.1% | -22.4% → -18.1% |
By price tier
| Segment | Forecasts scored | Avg. price error | Direction right | Inside range | Predicted → actual move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$2 | 12 | 21.6% | 50.0% | 100.0% | -22.8% → -3.4% |
| $2-10 | 86,372 | 10.8% | 53.8% | 82.5% | +6.1% → +0.9% |
| $10-50 | 54,603 | 11.5% | 48.0% | 66.4% | +8.2% → -0.7% |
| $50-200 | 14,284 | 10.3% | 48.2% | 83.2% | +6.9% → -1.6% |
| $200+ | 4,834 | 8.9% | 48.8% | 58.5% | +5.7% → -0.8% |
By model version
Each retrained model keeps its own record from the day it goes live. A version appears here once its first forecasts have been scored; until then it is listed below as pending.
| Segment | Forecasts scored | Avg. price error | Direction right | Inside range | Predicted → actual move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model v2026.06.09 (live since Jun 9, 2026) | 160,025 | 10.9% | 51.2% | 76.4% | +6.9% → +0.1% |
Awaiting their grade: Model v2026.09.14 (live since Sep 14, 2026) — 67,261 forecasts, first due in 4 days · Model v2026.08.29 (live since Aug 29, 2026) — 141,009 forecasts, first due in 3 days · Model v2026.06.09 (live since Jun 9, 2026) — 21,425 forecasts, first due in 1 days
By month forecast was made
Each row scores only forecasts made that month, so newer months reflect newer model versions.
| Segment | Forecasts scored | Avg. price error | Direction right | Inside range | Predicted → actual move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 13 | 50.0% | 38.5% | 53.8% | -0.1% → -21.1% |
| 2026-06 | 40,958 | 12.3% | 50.9% | 72.7% | +7.4% → -0.6% |
| 2026-07 | 71,777 | 11.0% | 50.1% | 75.2% | +6.8% → -0.1% |
| 2026-08 | 47,357 | 9.6% | 53.2% | 81.2% | +6.4% → +0.9% |
Methodology: predictions come from a machine-learning model in beta; “inside range” measures the 90%-coverage confidence band. Published targets include a live calibration layer (since Aug 2, 2026) learned from these scored outcomes; the tables above track the raw model so that calibration is always evaluated out-of-sample. Not investment advice. Read the full methodology.