Gem rates & grading ROI
Real PSA population data, not guesses: how often each card actually grades a PSA 10, what gems sell for, and the expected return of grading a raw copy. Expected value assumes your card gems at the observed rate, non-gems sell at the PSA 9 median, and grading costs ~$25. Pop data refreshes as PSA’s report updates.
Gem rates are averages across all submitters — centering and surface on your copy matter. Beta data · not investment advice.
Best expected grading ROI
Liquid PSA 10 markets, raw price $5+ — ranked by expected profit per graded copy.
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Pop | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu exAscended Heroes · #276 | $1,327.49 | $3,750.00 | 63.9% | 7,019 | $1,513.24 |
| Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · #284 | $1,403.16 | $3,452.50 | 65.0% | 8,943 | $1,295.06 |
| Mega Charizard Y exAscended Heroes · #294 | $614.19 | $4,475.92 | 23.7% | 3,665 | $1,070.52 |
| Mega Dragonite exAscended Heroes · #290 | $798.36 | $2,360.00 | 63.6% | 5,203 | $991.86 |
| Pikachu with Grey Felt HatScarlet & Violet Black Star Promos · #085 | $1,062.79 | $3,050.00 | 43.3% | 113,589 | $799.25 |
| Umbreon exPrismatic Evolutions · #161 | $1,535.50 | $4,651.50 | 30.3% | 19,287 | $755.33 |
| Pikachu exAscended Heroes · #277 | $450.31 | $1,679.00 | 59.3% | 3,679 | $731.22 |
| Umbreon VMAXEvolving Skies · #215 | $2,276.45 | $3,500.00 | 69.8% | 30,214 | $724.72 |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo exAscended Heroes · #281 | $417.86 | $1,437.50 | 69.5% | 3,719 | $717.00 |
| Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GXCosmic Eclipse · #221 | $489.21 | $1,850.00 | 36.0% | 4,562 | $472.33 |
| PsyduckAscended Heroes · #226 | $96.96 | $720.00 | 62.8% | 4,689 | $397.79 |
| Mega Dragonite exAscended Heroes · #295 | $318.04 | $2,000.00 | 20.1% | 1,722 | $384.99 |
| Rayquaza VMAXEvolving Skies · #218 | $1,104.52 | $1,830.00 | 68.6% | 21,435 | $376.65 |
| Steven's Metagross exAscended Heroes · #289 | $98.82 | $675.00 | 62.0% | 1,077 | $351.31 |
| Reshiram & Zekrom-GXCosmic Eclipse · #222 | $404.94 | $1,500.00 | 31.0% | 3,822 | $338.98 |
| Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · #269 | $69.78 | $548.00 | 70.3% | 7,171 | $337.12 |
| Gengar & Mimikyu-GXTeam Up · #053 | $335.88 | $1,400.00 | 31.1% | 7,847 | $322.25 |
| Lillie's Clefairy exAscended Heroes · #280 | $209.60 | $700.00 | 67.0% | 1,976 | $313.60 |
| Mega Feraligatr exAscended Heroes · #274 | $178.73 | $635.00 | 66.7% | 1,226 | $286.50 |
| Solgaleo & Lunala-GXCosmic Eclipse · #216 | $298.75 | $1,174.39 | 31.5% | 4,091 | $285.60 |
| Paradise ResortScarlet & Violet Black Star Promos · #045 | $599.98 | $1,096.73 | 33.1% | 1,004 | $272.48 |
| Shining LugiaSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM82 | $105.42 | $1,875.00 | 11.2% | 7,357 | $257.17 |
| Blastoise & Piplup-GXCosmic Eclipse · #215 | $451.65 | $1,443.47 | 32.9% | 4,720 | $249.45 |
| Umbreon VEvolving Skies · #189 | $387.75 | $1,007.00 | 43.9% | 18,934 | $239.89 |
| N's Zoroark exAscended Heroes · #286 | $196.32 | $599.98 | 66.1% | 1,533 | $236.37 |
Hardest cards to gem
Population 200+ — the cards PSA 10s are genuinely scarce for (and why gems command a premium).
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Pop | PSA 10 pop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champions FestivalSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM78 | $489.99 | $7,812.50 | 1.0% | 401 | 4 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM98 | $48.66 | $4,250.00 | 2.9% | 892 | 26 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM81 | $20.60 | $4,999.99 | 3.2% | 1,212 | 39 |
| MewtwoSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM77 | $19.47 | $3,200.00 | 4.0% | 972 | 39 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM76 | $21.11 | $1,250.00 | 4.4% | 1,026 | 45 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM86 | $24.64 | $2,000.00 | 5.3% | 604 | 32 |
| Umbreon-GXSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM36 | $54.62 | $3,588.25 | 6.0% | 682 | 41 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM04 | $11.59 | $220.00 | 10.2% | 550 | 56 |
| Shining LugiaSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM82 | $105.42 | $1,875.00 | 11.2% | 7,357 | 824 |
| Ash's PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM110 | $58.14 | $599.99 | 11.7% | 1,081 | 126 |
| Ash's PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM109 | $128.10 | $685.30 | 12.6% | 1,169 | 147 |
| Ash's PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM114 | $44.16 | $725.00 | 12.7% | 1,120 | 142 |
| Ash's PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM111 | $53.76 | $876.00 | 12.8% | 1,104 | 141 |
| Ash's PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM113 | $48.87 | $775.00 | 13.0% | 1,093 | 142 |
| Ash's PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM112 | $54.74 | $698.89 | 13.2% | 1,140 | 150 |
Easiest gems
Population 200+ — clean printings where most submissions gem (thinner PSA 10 premiums).
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Pop | Gem rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · #125 | $3.43 | $163.75 | 80.8% | 203 | 80.8% |
| Lycanroc VMAXEvolving Skies · #213 | $9.36 | $55.00 | 79.8% | 499 | 79.8% |
| Duraludon VMAXEvolving Skies · #219 | $7.00 | $40.00 | 76.4% | 305 | 76.4% |
| Glaceon VMAXEvolving Skies · #208 | $37.42 | $89.00 | 76.3% | 2,845 | 76.3% |
| Larry's StaraptorAscended Heroes · #249 | $4.24 | $129.95 | 75.8% | 264 | 75.8% |
| Leafeon VMAXEvolving Skies · #204 | $37.09 | $99.00 | 75.4% | 2,920 | 75.4% |
| MawileAscended Heroes · #246 | $6.53 | $140.50 | 75.2% | 327 | 75.2% |
| Rayquaza VMAXEvolving Skies · #217 | $117.52 | $185.50 | 74.7% | 5,948 | 74.7% |
| MedichamAscended Heroes · #241 | $5.72 | $159.99 | 74.6% | 382 | 74.6% |
| Duraludon VMAXEvolving Skies · #220 | $18.83 | $79.99 | 73.8% | 2,159 | 73.8% |
| Umbreon VMAXEvolving Skies · #214 | $75.97 | $160.00 | 73.6% | 5,576 | 73.6% |
| Gyarados VMAXEvolving Skies · #207 | $49.17 | $120.00 | 72.9% | 3,621 | 72.9% |
| Sylveon VMAXEvolving Skies · #212 | $392.58 | $679.50 | 72.3% | 19,154 | 72.3% |
| Mega Scrafty exAscended Heroes · #270 | $5.24 | $147.00 | 72.2% | 720 | 72.2% |
| Leafeon VMAXEvolving Skies · #205 | $404.51 | $610.00 | 71.8% | 15,431 | 71.8% |
How this works
ChasingFoil combines three observed datasets: PSA’s population report (how many copies exist at each grade), eBay sold medians by grade (what PSA 10s and 9s actually sell for), and daily TCGplayer raw prices. The expected value of grading is the gem-rate-weighted average of those outcomes; ROI subtracts the grading fee and the raw cost. Every number links back to its card page — full methodology here.