Gem rates & grading ROI
Real PSA population data, not guesses: how often each card actually grades a PSA 10, what gems sell for, and the expected return of grading a raw copy. Expected value assumes your card gems at the observed rate, non-gems sell at the PSA 9 median, and grading costs ~$25. Pop data refreshes as PSA’s report updates.
Gem rates are averages across all submitters — centering and surface on your copy matter. Beta data · not investment advice.
Gem rates by set
Every set with PSA population coverage has its own page: set-wide gem rate, hardest and easiest cards to gem, and per-card grading ROI.
- Scarlet & Violet Black Star Promos117 cards · 34.7% gem
- Prismatic Evolutions331 cards · 31.0% gem
- Sun & Moon Black Star Promos134 cards · 36.1% gem
- Evolving Skies103 cards · 60.1% gem
- SWSH Black Star Promos103 cards · 25.4% gem
- Cosmic Eclipse87 cards · 37.5% gem
- Ascended Heroes89 cards · 62.6% gem
- Team Up36 cards · 30.9% gem
Best expected grading ROI
Liquid PSA 10 markets, raw price $5+ — ranked by expected profit per graded copy.
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Pop | Est. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon exPrismatic Evolutions · #161 | $1,269.69 | $5,199.00 | 30.3% | 19,287 | $1,299.55 |
| Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · #284 | $816.38 | $2,632.76 | 65.0% | 8,943 | $1,288.02 |
| Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GXCosmic Eclipse · #221 | $595.06 | $4,050.00 | 36.0% | 4,562 | $1,255.30 |
| Pikachu exAscended Heroes · #276 | $740.19 | $2,504.00 | 63.9% | 7,019 | $1,222.66 |
| Umbreon VMAXEvolving Skies · #215 | $2,264.70 | $4,150.00 | 69.8% | 30,214 | $1,218.98 |
| CharizardSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM158 | $87.33 | $6,685.25 | 14.4% | 4,824 | $1,016.39 |
| Mewtwo & Mew-GXSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM191 | $356.82 | $2,100.00 | 50.3% | 19,115 | $896.47 |
| Mega Dragonite exAscended Heroes · #290 | $474.19 | $1,724.00 | 63.6% | 5,203 | $869.88 |
| Rayquaza VMAXEvolving Skies · #218 | $1,268.52 | $2,600.00 | 68.6% | 21,435 | $811.30 |
| Pikachu with Grey Felt HatScarlet & Violet Black Star Promos · #085 | $1,009.41 | $2,860.00 | 43.3% | 113,589 | $764.74 |
| Special Delivery BidoofSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH177 | $564.51 | $3,350.02 | 22.9% | 4,526 | $762.30 |
| Pikachu & Zekrom-GXSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM168 | $209.68 | $2,000.00 | 37.8% | 13,974 | $720.86 |
| Gengar & Mimikyu-GXTeam Up · #053 | $386.23 | $2,550.00 | 31.1% | 7,847 | $713.48 |
| Mega Charizard Y exAscended Heroes · #294 | $283.75 | $2,500.00 | 23.7% | 3,665 | $697.87 |
| Armored MewtwoSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM228 | $307.66 | $8,000.00 | 4.6% | 6,586 | $659.30 |
| Reshiram & Charizard-GXSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM201 | $175.78 | $5,500.00 | 7.2% | 5,200 | $643.80 |
| Blastoise & Piplup-GXCosmic Eclipse · #215 | $483.93 | $2,500.00 | 32.9% | 4,720 | $624.77 |
| Pikachu exAscended Heroes · #277 | $299.87 | $1,150.00 | 59.3% | 3,679 | $516.11 |
| PikachuCosmic Eclipse · #241 | $223.18 | $2,042.50 | 24.2% | 15,338 | $473.31 |
| Trevenant & Dusknoir-GXSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM217 | $34.31 | $1,425.00 | 34.0% | 1,337 | $471.79 |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo exAscended Heroes · #281 | $242.07 | $900.00 | 69.5% | 3,719 | $471.17 |
| Rayquaza VSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH147 | $22.87 | $1,325.00 | 34.3% | 321 | $441.04 |
| Rayquaza VEvolving Skies · #194 | $480.92 | $1,395.00 | 51.2% | 18,295 | $432.89 |
| Eevee & Snorlax-GXSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM169 | $165.41 | $1,200.00 | 38.3% | 11,176 | $392.09 |
| Champions FestivalSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM231 | $250.49 | $1,504.00 | 21.5% | 576 | $378.44 |
Hardest cards to gem
Population 200+ — the cards PSA 10s are genuinely scarce for (and why gems command a premium).
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Pop | PSA 10 pop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champions FestivalSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM78 | $388.67 | $7,812.50 | 1.0% | 401 | 4 |
| Light ToxtricitySWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH137 | $5.19 | $3,176.40 | 2.6% | 3,578 | 92 |
| EeveeSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH175 | $8.90 | $1,200.00 | 2.6% | 346 | 9 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM98 | $64.57 | $4,250.00 | 2.9% | 892 | 26 |
| EeveeSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH190 | $4.48 | $1,175.00 | 2.9% | 444 | 13 |
| PikachuSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH153 | $48.30 | $4,999.99 | 3.0% | 1,226 | 37 |
| ArcanineSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH304 | $59.02 | $461.43 | 3.1% | 587 | 18 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM81 | $34.93 | $6,499.99 | 3.2% | 1,212 | 39 |
| BulbasaurSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH303 | $80.77 | $2,124.99 | 3.8% | 634 | 24 |
| Zacian LV.XSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH135 | $3.64 | $1,001.88 | 4.0% | 1,771 | 71 |
| MewtwoSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM77 | $22.58 | $3,999.99 | 4.0% | 972 | 39 |
| VolcaronaBlack Bolt · #100 | $53.57 | $1,100.00 | 4.2% | 403 | 17 |
| SylveonSWSH Black Star Promos · #SWSH211 | $7.44 | $1,274.98 | 4.2% | 640 | 27 |
| PikachuSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM76 | $20.37 | $1,775.00 | 4.4% | 1,026 | 45 |
| Armored MewtwoSun & Moon Black Star Promos · #SM228 | $307.66 | $8,000.00 | 4.6% | 6,586 | 302 |
Easiest gems
Population 200+ — clean printings where most submissions gem (thinner PSA 10 premiums).
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Pop | Gem rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar exAscended Heroes · #125 | $2.44 | $75.00 | 80.8% | 203 | 80.8% |
| Lycanroc VMAXEvolving Skies · #213 | $9.79 | $59.00 | 79.8% | 499 | 79.8% |
| Duraludon VMAXEvolving Skies · #219 | $6.51 | $42.50 | 76.4% | 305 | 76.4% |
| Glaceon VMAXEvolving Skies · #208 | $36.55 | $89.99 | 76.3% | 2,845 | 76.3% |
| Larry's StaraptorAscended Heroes · #249 | $2.81 | $75.00 | 75.8% | 264 | 75.8% |
| Leafeon VMAXEvolving Skies · #204 | $43.71 | $100.00 | 75.4% | 2,920 | 75.4% |
| MawileAscended Heroes · #246 | $4.98 | $69.00 | 75.2% | 327 | 75.2% |
| Rayquaza VMAXEvolving Skies · #217 | $108.38 | $222.50 | 74.7% | 5,948 | 74.7% |
| MedichamAscended Heroes · #241 | $1.79 | $89.98 | 74.6% | 382 | 74.6% |
| Duraludon VMAXEvolving Skies · #220 | $14.80 | $79.95 | 73.8% | 2,159 | 73.8% |
| Umbreon VMAXEvolving Skies · #214 | $84.03 | $170.50 | 73.6% | 5,576 | 73.6% |
| Gyarados VMAXEvolving Skies · #207 | $46.98 | $141.25 | 72.9% | 3,621 | 72.9% |
| Sylveon VMAXEvolving Skies · #212 | $384.06 | $675.99 | 72.3% | 19,154 | 72.3% |
| Mega Scrafty exAscended Heroes · #270 | $2.97 | $70.00 | 72.2% | 720 | 72.2% |
| Excadrill exBlack Bolt · #168 | $19.98 | $77.25 | 71.9% | 3,139 | 71.9% |
How this works
ChasingFoil combines three observed datasets: PSA’s population report (how many copies exist at each grade), eBay sold medians by grade (what PSA 10s and 9s actually sell for), and daily TCGplayer raw prices. The expected value of grading is the gem-rate-weighted average of those outcomes; ROI subtracts the grading fee and the raw cost. Every number links back to its card page — full methodology here.